Tuesday, May 22, 2007

Back to Earth

No, I don't mean the Red Sox are back to Earth. They're still 9.5 games up. It's Tim Wakefield who is coming back to Earth. A week ago I wrote:
Is it possible that Wakefield will finish in the top 10 in the Cy Young voting? Sure. But he’s 40 years old and it’s not likely that he goes from a career 4.30 ERA to a sub-3.00 pitcher. Sub-4.00, sure, but not Cy Young caliber. He’s been great so far, but it will catch up to him. Everyone has stretches of dominance like this.
Pretty prophetic, eh? The problem with most people is they get caught up in the most recent pretty statistics and forget about the big picture or the more predictive peripheral stats.

Since I wrote that, Wakefield has pitched 12 innings and allowed 11 earned runs. His WHIP is closer to his career average of 1.36 and his K:BB ratio is nearly 1, indicating he will continue falling towards his (still respectable) career averages.

I'm not picking on Wakefield; I'm just being realistic. If you want me to pick on someone, maybe I'll post about the inept JD Drew later today.

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