Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Beckett Still Overusing His Fastball

I’ve heard several times this morning that Beckett is relying less on his fastball this year. I’m here to provide statistical proof that they’re wrong. I can’t find final 2006 stats for Beckett’s pitch selection, but I posted about it on August 10th, showing he was throwing the fastball 71% of the time and batters were hitting .264 off it. In 2007, Beckett is actually throwing the fastball more, at 72% of the time. Batters are hitting .259 off it. In fact, the fastball and curve make up 91% of his repertoire this season, compared to just 88% in 2006.

Look, I’m just as excited as the next guy about Beckett’s first 2 starts. But we need to be realize how early the season is. Here’s a sobering fact: Beckett was 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA after his first 3 starts in 2006. He went 7 innings in each start, giving up just 1 earned run in each. He imploded in his next 4 starts.

I hate to rain on everyone’s parade and I hope Beckett continues this hot streak, but look at the facts. Don’t be clouded by 2 good starts. He’s done it before. Wait until he’s done it for an entire month. His best ERA for a month in 2006 was 4.42.



The Triumphant Red Sox Fan said...

Wow. Will you rain on my next parade?

But seriously, I hear what you're saying about the way Beckett did last April. The one thing that encourages me is that his strikeouts are up a bit, so maybe he's placing his pitches better.

As always, time will tell the whole story. Go Sox!

Tex said...

You really are gonna make me use an umbrella arent you?? and you're right...besides...who gets excited in April??

course Im biased about Josh...he is a texas boy ya know :)