Monday, February 12, 2007

Over/Under on RBI for JD Drew

A new feature here at Red Sox Stats Guy is Over/Under. I’m going to set JD Drew’s Over/Under on RBI at 110 and I’m taking the over. Why? Take a look at the 3 guys in front of him: Youkilis, Manny, and Ortiz. Assuming, on average, that these guys get on base 40% of the time and they each come to the plate 600 times in the season. That’s 720 times those 3 get on base. Now, I realize that Drew will lead off some innings, but there will be plenty of RBI opportunities for this guy.

We already talked about his clutchness, but how did he fare in RBI opportunities in 2006? In virtually every scenario with men on base, Drew’s OPS was over .900. This guy could drive in 150! (Add in the common qualifier of, “if healthy.”) In general, no matter which base or how many outs there were, his OPS was .892 with men on base with 88 RBI in 253 at-bats. That’s not too shabby.

We don’t need Drew to be a stud. He doesn’t need to be David Ortiz. Hell, David Ortiz doesn’t need to be David Ortiz. All Drew needs to do is get on base and knock in some runs. And he’s going to have a lot of opportunities to do that in Boston in 2007.

Have an opinion about how many ribbies Drew is going to have? Post it in the comments!

1 comment:

skootch said...

He's also got the MK (Manny's Knees)factor going for him. Let me explain: Manny probably wont hit many doubles with his aging knees, and a lot of the time he will be walked to get to drew, so even though the hitting behind drew may drop off (we shall see Tek, Crisp, etc) he probably wont get intentionally walked very much.